Arsenal are the team to beat in this season's Champions League according to a supercomputer simulation reported by Daily Mail Sport. The Gunners have been given a 20.9 per cent chance of lifting the trophy for the first time, ranking them first among all contenders as the competition's league phase begins on Tuesday.
Mikel Arteta's side are the reigning Premier League champions and finished as runners-up in last season's Champions League final. They were defeated by Paris Saint-Germain in a penalty shoot-out following a 1-1 draw in Budapest last May. That loss marked their second Champions League final defeat, having also been runners-up in 2006.
What are Arsenal's chances of reaching the final?
Arsenal's path back to the final is considered strong by the simulation. The model gives them a 34.8 per cent chance of making the final and a 50 per cent chance of reaching the semi-finals. This projection comes as Arsenal maintain strong domestic form, currently sitting second in the Premier League with nine points from three wins. They have scored six goals and conceded just one, giving them a +5 goal difference ahead of their next match against Sunderland.
Key defenders William Saliba and Cristhian Mosquera are currently sidelined, which could impact European preparations. Fans can track the team's availability on our injuries page.
Which teams are Arsenal's main rivals?
Bayern Munich are ranked narrowly behind Arsenal in the supercomputer's list. Manchester City, in their first season under manager Enzo Maresca, are given a 12.3 per cent chance of winning. Barcelona sit fourth with an 8.2 per cent chance, despite not reaching the final since 2015.
Paris Saint-Germain, who beat Arsenal to claim back-to-back titles, are only fifth favourites with a 7.1 per cent chance. They became just the second team after Real Madrid to win consecutive Champions League titles in the competition's modern era. However, PSG have made their worst start to a season in 19 years under manager Luis Enrique, suffering losses to Lens and Monaco while drawing with Rennes and Lille.
How does the rest of the field shape up?
Liverpool are sixth favourites with a 6.1 per cent chance as Andoni Iraola prepares for his first Champions League campaign in charge. Real Madrid, the most successful club in competition history, are ranked seventh with a 4.4 per cent chance. Manchester United are given a 3.8 per cent chance of glory, putting them close to Real Madrid in the projections.
The supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations to create these probabilities. Inter Milan were last season's other finalists, having finished as runners-up in 2025. Aston Villa enter as Europa League winners.
What is Arsenal's current form heading into Europe?
Arsenal's strong domestic start provides momentum for their European campaign. Their perfect record of three wins from three games gives them confidence ahead of the Champions League's new league phase format. The team's next Premier League fixture is away to Sunderland on September 12th, which you can see on our fixtures schedule.
With the league phase beginning this week, Arsenal will look to translate their domestic dominance onto the European stage. The simulation suggests they have the best chance of any team to finally secure that elusive first Champions League trophy.
Arsenal face Sunderland in their next Premier League match on September 12, 2026.
